Report Time: December 25, 2023, 14:00-16:00

Report Location: Lecture Hall 311, School of Civil Engineering

Report Topic: Hazard and Risk Analysis of Extreme Meteorological/Climatic Disasters and Disaster Early Warning

—Taking multi-hazard events caused by typhoons as an example

Speaker: Duan Zhongdong

Abstract:

Under the backdrop of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological/climatic disasters have changed significantly. Typhoons are major meteorological disasters in tropical ocean regions. Typhoon hazard analysis, risk analysis, and forecasting are fundamental to disaster risk management, emergency planning and decision-making, and disaster early warning by government or industry management departments. This report focuses on typhoon disasters and introduces a physical mechanism-based multi-hazard (strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and flooding) typhoon model and a hazard analysis framework based on disaster process simulation. Within this framework, for typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean affecting my country, the report introduces the disaster models involved in multi-hazard typhoon analysis, including: stochastic typhoon event models, near-surface typhoon wind field models, typhoon rainfall parameterization models, typhoon storm surge simulation, and flood simulation methods. Finally, several application cases of this set of models and methods in insurance, power, and urban disaster risk management are presented. The report will analyze and emphasize the limitations of the models studied and the issues that still need further research.

Speaker Profile:

Duan Zhongdong: Currently a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen). He previously served as a professor, doctoral supervisor, and vice dean at the School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology. He also served as the Vice Chairman of the Random Vibration Professional Committee of the Chinese Society for Vibration Engineering and as a Standing Director and Secretary-General of the Heilongjiang Provincial Society of Mechanics. He has undertaken more than 50 national and provincial-level research projects, including a National Outstanding Youth Science Fund project (Category B, co-principal investigator), a major project of the National 863 Program, a sub-project of the 973 Program, a science and technology support program, and a national key research and development program project. In 2004, he was selected for the first batch of the Ministry of Education's New Century Excellent Talents Support Program, and in 2005, he received the honorary title of Outstanding Doctoral Degree Recipient for his outstanding contributions from the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense. He has received one National Science and Technology Progress Award (Second Prize), and one First Prize each for Science and Technology Progress and Invention from Chinese universities. His research results have been applied to the development of my country's first Typhoon Catastrophe Model for the insurance/reinsurance industry. He has published more than 180 academic journal papers. He has supervised more than 30 doctoral students and more than 100 master's students.